I'm here in the hall, where following the nomination of Barack Obama the Democrats' Senate candidates are being featured. While we wait for Big Dog and the next Vice President of the United States, here are some new numbers from CNN and Time (.pdf) from some key swing states:

Colorado (8/24-26, 670 RVs, MoE +/- 4.0%

John McCain: 47 percent
Barack Obama: 46 percent

Nevada (8/24-26, 625 RVs, MoE +/- 4.0%

John McCain: 44 percent
Barack Obama: 49 percent

New Mexico (8/24-26, 659 RVs, MoE +/- 4.0%

John McCain: 40 percent
Barack Obama: 53 percent

Pennsylvania (8/24-26, 669 RVs, MoE +/- 4.0%

John McCain: 43 percent
Barack Obama: 48 percent

Not too bad, not too bad. Looking across the polling from these states, it appears that Colorado is about as tight as can be; Pennsylvania is close, though Obama has a noticeable edge; New Mexico is probably tighter than CNN and Time have it, though Obama probably has an edge; and Nevada is close. Gotta run do some reporting, but will be back to blog some more forthwith...

Todd and I are both here... should be very cool. Watch it here:

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Update [2008-8-26 16:8:14 by Todd Beeton]:It's pretty crazy here. The room seats 2600, they've given away 2500 tickets plus media. A lot of sad reporters were left without credentials. Thanks, EMILY's List for hooking us up.

I spoke with EMILY's List Political Director Jonathan Parker yesterday, which I'll write up at greater length, but their essential mission is to elect Democratic pro-choice women. On the big screens in the room are pictures and brief profiles of some of the candidates they've endorsed this cycle including Linda Stender in NJ-07, Annette Taddeo in FL-18, Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15, Darcy Burner in WA-08, Sam Bennett in PA-15, Road to 60 Senate candidate Kay Hagan (NC), Christine Jennings in FL-13, Jill Derby in NV-02 and the list literally goes on and on.

------------------------------- Ellen Malcolm;s remarks over the flip.

There are signs everywhere that say "When Women Vote, Democrats win." That is essential to the message today. As Malcolm said, women are key to achieving a progressive majority.

Ellen Malcolm introduced MD Senator Barbara Mikulski who is freakin awesome. She was the first Democratic woman elected in her own right to the senate and EMILY's List was instrumental in that race. As Mikulski said: "Early money is like yeast: it helps raise more dough!"

More huge applause at the mention of Michelle.

Mikulski is now introducing Hillary Clinton. "I was a proud supporter of Hillary Clinton and was a national co-chair of her campaign and I remain an admirer...Now we are ready to turn the page. I stood with Hillary on the floor of the senate in support of equal pay for equal work. I stood there with Barack Obama. John McCain didn't even bother to show up. I stood there with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama shoulder to shoulder and that's how we need to stand now." Hillary's entering and the place is GOING NUTS.

And it won't stop.

Hillary's remarks over the flip.

Nancy Pelosi's remarks over the flip.

WA Gov. Christine Gregoire is introducing Michelle Obama. "Her husband calls her the rock of the campaign. Malia and Sascha simply call her 'Mom.'"

Michelle has taken the stage. This place really loves her.

Michelle Obama's remarks:

"...and finally, thank you to Senator Clinton. No one has been more gracious, more forthcoming and more helpful to me than Senator Clinton. She and her family have been gracious, they've offered me help and advice...it is because of her candidacy, she broke so many stereotypes, she got rid of the notion that a woman can not be president. Those days are over, those days are gone. She has offered my daughters and all of our daughters a different notion of what they can become."

Michelle too paid tribute to Stephanie Tubbs Jones.

Colorado granted women the right to vote a full 27 years before congress ratified it. "It was also the first state to implement it through voter initiative."

"What a shining example of how people can bring out the best in each other...Today, let's celebrate how far we've come and how deep our shared capacity is to break through any barriers that stand in the way of progress in this nation."

"Haven't we proven that something is changing in this nation?"

"What we have seen is that people are hungry for change. And in two days, we're going to make a little more history when we will nominate Barack Obama to be the next president of the United States. As you can imagine, I'm one proud spouse...I know with every fiber of my being that he is going to be an amazing president."

"I am speaking as an American and I will say this time and time again: who loves my country."

Michelle is talking about how Barack wants to close the gap between the world as it is and the world as it should be.

"That anyone who puts in a hard day's work should be able to raise a family.

An economy that works not just on Wall St. but on Main St. as well.

In the world as it should be, women are given equal pay for equal work. Employers are held accountable for pay discrimination.

In the world as it should be, every woman should be able to make her own choice about whether or when to become a parent. That is a sacred choice and the government should have no say." Huge applause.

"The truth is, he can't do it alone...He said this race can not be about him, it has to be about us. We are going to need every single one of you in this room fighting for this and standing with us and praying for us. When we leave Denver, we're going to need you to go back, talk to your friends and knock on doors...There's nothing more powerful than the conversations you have with each other."

"And if you don't think Barack needs you, I am going to need you. I am going to need you to have your back." Cheering.

"If we fight for the world as it should be...not only will we elect Barack Obama the president of the United States but we will change the history of this nation forever."

Tough news for John McCain. Despite the fact that McCain, along with the Republican National Committee, invested at least $6 million in Pennsylvania on advertisements, outspending Barack Obama by roughly a 3-to-2 margin, MccCain's numbers aren't budging upward one bit, according to new Quinnipiac polling.

Pennsylvania (8/17-24, 1,234 LVs, MoE +/- 2.8%)

John McCain (R): 42 percent (42 percent on July 31)
Barack Obama (D): 49 percent (49 percent on July 31)

The numbers out of Florida and Ohio, unlike those from Pennsylvania, are within the margin of error.

Florida (8/17-24, 1,069 LVs, MoE +/- 3.0%)

John McCain (R): 47 percent (44 percent on July 31)
Barack Obama (D): 43 percent (46 percent on July 31)

Ohio (8/17-24, 1,234 LVs, MoE +/- 2.8%)

John McCain (R): 43 percent (44 percent on July 31)
Barack Obama (D): 44 percent (46 percent on July 31)

No doubt it would be nice to see more favorable numbers for Barack Obama in Florida and Ohio at this juncture, though it's likely the case that the race will be tight in both states all the way through November, and a blowout in either direction is not terribly likely. In Florida, in particular, the fact that Obama appears to be losing ground despite the fact that he has been on the air while McCain has not is at least somewhat worrisome (even if Florida is not by any means a necessary part of the Democratic coalition and road to 270 this fall). That all said, that McCain is utterly failing in making Pennsyvlania a real race should be of equal concern to his campaign, especially considering that Iowa, which George W. Bush carried in 2004, leaning towards Obama and other red states -- including Colorado and Virginia, and even North Dakota and Alaska -- definitely in play).

Go Hillary!

Update [2008-8-25 20:14:5 by Jonathan Singer]: More Hillary, this one from the Hispanic Caucus:

The Republican National Committee's independent expenditure arm today released an ad attacking Barack Obama using Hillary Clinton's words during the primary. According to The Politico's Ben Smith, Clinton herself isn't buying it.

"I'm Hillary Clinton and I do not approve that message," Clinton tells the New York delegation of McCain's ad that features her old criticism of Obama.

Clinton says Democrats are gathered in Denver for a "clear and specific purpose and that is to elect Barack Obama President of the United States," my colleague Amie Parnes reports.

"Now I ask each and every one of you to work as hard for Obama as you worked for me," she said.

That sounds like a great script for an ad to be put out by the Obama campaign, or even the Democratic National Convention -- Hillary Clinton speaking to camera, right after a brief excerpt of the RNC IE ad, saying "I'm Hillary Clinton and I do not approve that message... Now I ask each and every one of you to work as hard for Obama as you worked for me." What better way to dispel the false notion perpetuated by some in the media, and exploited with paid media by the McCain campaign, that Clinton isn't on board with the Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden this year?

Hispanic voters like Barack Obama and don't like John McCain. Take a look at the latest numbers across the Mountain West from Mason-Dixon (discussed as well in my last post), specifically the numbers on Hispanic voters:

Hispanic Voters in the Mountain West

John McCain (R): 25 percent
Barack Obama (D): 64 percent

These numbers track quite closely to the national numbers on Hispanic voters released over the course of the last several months. Research 2000 nationwide polling from July showed Obama leading McCain among the Hispanic community by a 65 percent to 24 percent margin -- almost exactly the same spread as was found in this multi-state polling from M-D. Pew polling also from July showed Obama leading by a similar 66 percent to 22 percent margin, NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling from June found a 62 percent to 28 percent spread, and the composite of Gallup polling from the month of May pegged Obama with a 62 percent to 29 percent lead.

At some point, presumably, the media will begin to focus on -- or at least give more than passing reference to -- the fact that McCain is uniquely weak among Hispanic voters, polling significantly behind George W. Bush in 2004 and even the anti-immigration House Republicans in 2006. Right?

Mason-Dixon released polling this weekend on the state of the race in the Mountain West. In short, it looks like both Barack Obama and John McCain still have their work cut out for them, though McCain does appear to have an edge in the region, leading in three of the four competitive states in the region, all of which  George W. Bush carried in 2004.

But perhaps the bigger story out of the polling is this: Despite the fact that McCain enjoys a moderately decent 50 percent favorable rating in his home state of Arizona -- 13 points higher than that of Obama -- McCain leads Obama in the state by just a 47 percent to 41 percent margin. These are not the kind of numbers that instill much confidence -- particularly given that the people of Arizona know McCain already, and thus he's not particularly likely to pick up a whole lot of undecided voters.

This is far from the first survey to show McCain having difficulty in Arizona. Consecutive polls from Arizona State University have shown McCain's lead peaking at 10 percentage points, and a Rasmussen Reports survey from back in June showed him up just 49 percent to 40 percent over Obama in the state (though a more recent Rasmussen poll gave him a 19-point lead).

It's not clear that Obama is seriously contesting Arizona at this juncture, though he certainly has an active campaign in the state. That said, this is one of those "if the shoe were on the other foot" instances that makes you wonder about the extent to which the media would be hyperventilating were it Obama continually polling under 50 percent in his home state, the reliably Democratic Illinois. While the media in Arizona is paying attention -- check out this great report from local television last month on the surprising closeness of the race in the state -- the establishment press is just paying little to no heed. Well, if McCain follows in the footsteps of his good friends inside the Beltway and doesn't pay attention to Arizona, he just might find himself needing to campaign in the state come October, an outcome he can ill afford.

I'm about to board my flight to Denver, so please consider this an open thread... What's on your mind?